In a stark warning to global leaders, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has reported that if countries continue on their current path, global temperatures are on track to rise by 3.1°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. This forecast arrives as countries prepare for COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where accelerating climate action will be the central topic.
The latest “Emissions Gap Report 2024: No More Hot Air…Please!” indicates that while full implementation of both conditional and unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would limit warming to around 2.6°C, this remains well beyond the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement. The UNEP report stresses that for warming to stay under 1.5°C, global emissions must drop 42% from 2019 levels by 2030; to keep below 2°C, emissions must be cut by 28%.
G20 Nations Account for Most Emissions
The report highlights the disproportionate role of G20 countries, which were responsible for 77% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2023. The six top emitters alone contributed 63% of the world’s GHG emissions. Least developed countries, by contrast, accounted for just 3% of emissions, underscoring the imbalance in global responsibility. The report further reveals that India’s per capita emissions were significantly lower than the U.S. and China, at 2.9 tCO₂e compared to 18 tCO₂e and 11 tCO₂e, respectively.
Despite the rise in global emissions, the report asserts that there is still an opportunity to close the emissions gap by deploying renewable energy and conservation efforts. Solar and wind energy, for instance, could account for 27% of total emissions reductions by 2030 and 38% by 2035. Forest conservation and restoration could contribute a further 20% reduction.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen emphasized the urgency of the situation, warning that without immediate, large-scale mobilization, the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C will be unattainable. She urged nations to use COP29 as a platform to strengthen NDCs and commit to more aggressive reductions.
The report also calls for a shift away from fossil fuels, improved energy efficiency, and broader electrification across building, transport, and industry sectors. The UNEP notes that while some G20 countries have yet to peak in emissions, the path forward includes achieving COP28 targets such as tripling renewable energy capacity and conserving ecosystems by 2030.
COP29, taking place from November 11 to 22 in Baku, Azerbaijan, will provide a critical opportunity for countries to act on these recommendations and align global policy with the realities of climate science.
Sources By Agencies
