A new study published in The Lancet medical journal reveals that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was significantly under-reported by the Palestinian health ministry. The peer-reviewed research estimates that between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries occurred during this period, a stark 40% higher than the 37,877 deaths officially reported by Gaza’s health ministry up to June 30, 2024.
The study, conducted by a UK-led research group, used a statistical method called “capture-recapture” to estimate the death toll. This method combined data from three sources: health ministry records, an online survey where Palestinians reported family deaths, and verified social media obituaries. The best estimate from the study places the death toll at 64,260, which accounts for 2.9% of Gaza’s pre-war population, roughly one in 35 inhabitants.
High Civilian Toll
According to the research, 59% of the reported deaths were women, children, and elderly individuals. The figures include only deaths from traumatic injuries, excluding fatalities caused by healthcare shortages, malnutrition, or individuals still missing and presumed buried under rubble.
As of January 2025, Gaza’s health ministry estimates that 46,006 people have died over the 15-month duration of the conflict. The United Nations has deemed the health ministry’s figures reliable, despite Israel’s repeated challenges to their credibility.
Methodology and Validation
The “capture-recapture” statistical technique, previously applied in conflict zones such as Guatemala, Kosovo, and Peru, enabled researchers to account for incomplete or overlapping data from different sources. The study’s lead author, Zeina Jamaluddine of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, emphasized the rigorous validation of data, including verification from relatives or hospital records.
Patrick Ball, a US-based statistician unaffiliated with the study, endorsed the methodology as robust and well-established. Kevin McConway, a statistics professor at the Open University, called the findings “reasonably compelling,” while acknowledging uncertainties inherent in the data.
Broader Implications
The study excluded indirect deaths caused by war-related factors such as lack of healthcare, food, and sanitation. In July 2024, a contentious non-peer-reviewed analysis in The Lancet suggested that indirect deaths could raise the total to 186,000. However, the new research argues that such extrapolations may not be appropriate for Gaza, given its unique pre-war conditions.
Jamaluddine criticized the global focus on death toll debates, stating, “We already know there is high mortality.”
The study has sparked reactions from various quarters, with researchers expecting criticism from both sides of the conflict.
Sources By Agencies
